Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
